Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.732505 9.137128 10.684869 12.511426 14.602389 16.915413 19.661672
2025-02-02 5.872560 7.743681 9.999891 12.898115 16.497146 20.792667 26.277693
2025-02-09 4.772983 6.896219 9.653134 13.443749 18.460920 24.808215 33.368981
2025-02-16 3.823822 5.997955 9.012583 13.410117 19.556086 27.720632 39.241162
2025-02-23 3.021640 5.120199 8.213009 12.974709 19.962486 29.654614 43.879945
2025-03-02 2.393665 4.366530 7.446376 12.431730 20.081588 31.113103 47.882838
2025-03-09 2.023028 3.943159 7.097965 12.433575 20.942460 33.626899 53.489545
2025-03-16 1.734536 3.600361 6.816909 12.482729 21.842779 36.222299 59.347051
2025-03-23 1.486280 3.280536 6.520871 12.454542 22.589090 38.602506 64.998627
2025-03-30 1.216075 2.865545 5.993920 11.958683 22.501414 39.643972 68.615487
2025-04-06 1.054239 2.634383 5.764557 11.948111 23.207569 41.972511 74.369303
2025-04-13 0.909775 2.410790 5.515115 11.864146 23.763117 44.069511 79.848690
2025-04-20 0.854607 2.379739 5.649822 12.533042 25.742408 48.725106 89.893942
2025-04-27 0.789472 2.313522 5.703897 13.050978 27.489642 53.099892 99.732556
2025-05-04 0.736848 2.267309 5.792915 13.644683 29.420743 57.906926 110.564478
2025-05-11 0.644695 2.100828 5.594389 13.623866 30.170977 60.661502 117.993565
2025-05-18 0.538927 1.872811 5.220766 13.186460 30.060967 61.843406 122.709432
2025-05-25 0.443623 1.649209 4.820114 12.637003 29.666497 62.456996 126.416914
2025-06-01 0.390789 1.537900 4.675206 12.639252 30.391725 65.193721 134.092686
2025-06-08 0.346867 1.443287 4.557689 12.689227 31.215427 68.157307 142.323766
2025-06-15 0.305208 1.344965 4.414686 12.660673 31.863704 70.809989 150.094412
2025-06-22 0.252086 1.190818 4.093429 12.157707 31.427471 71.290877 153.763514
2025-06-29 0.222499 1.113529 3.975296 12.146986 32.083329 73.985895 161.801864